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10

Honor Roll

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 64

Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 74 par27/12C6OR 74C6 @ Turfway Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 76 par22/02C6OR 76C6 @ Laurel Park 29/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 74 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 74 par29/03C6OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-29Laurel Park?5th3rd+2
2026-02-22Turfway Park?5th3rd+2
2025-12-27Laurel Park?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1222/0229/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
22/02/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
29/03/20265th5/287%20%-0.67