4
Ability
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 72
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 03/06/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/07/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |