Lisa Joy
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Lingfield | 3 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newmarket | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 07/01/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 05/06/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |