7
Marcinkowski
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 80
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |