8
Patron Silver
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 14/11/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |