3
Crossingthechannel
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 97
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 1/3 | 98% | 25% | -0.73 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |