Kalea Bay
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 64
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Golden State Racing | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-11-18 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2024-09-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/11/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |