7
Our Magical Moon
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |