1
Village Person
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |