6
Bay Street
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |