3
Chilling Factor
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 83
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |