1
Hockey
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 84
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |