4
Let's Dance Again
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 74
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |