5
Mavilus
8yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 81
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/02/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 05/04/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 24/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |