8
Tinta Roja
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 84
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |