Bint Mischief
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |