1
Katarzyna
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |