Midnight Queen
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |