Palace Lights
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 78
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-05-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 91% | +0.00 |
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 04/05/2025 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 88% | -0.10 |
| 28/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 17/06/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |