13
Roberta
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 71
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 31/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |