Savanasrioguerrera

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 69

Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-11	Colonial Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-18	Delaware Park	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-06-04	Delaware Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-04-25	Laurel Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-04-03	Laurel Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-03-12	Colonial Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 14

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength4%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/03/2026	8th	25/1	0%	13%	+0.13
03/04/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
25/04/2026	1st	25/1	0%	100%	+1.00
04/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	64%	+0.48
18/06/2026	8th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
11/07/2026	7th	40/1	0%	33%	+0.33