Smokin Hot Blonde
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 70
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/03/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |