9
Why
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 70% | -0.16 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |