3
Incremental
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 85
Deauville · Prix De Canapville Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evreux | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 15/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |