6
Spring Eve
6yo Mare · 9-1
Deauville · Prix De Canapville Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chateaubriant | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/11/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/07/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |