4
Stormy Donald
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Deauville · Prix De Canapville Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 06/12/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/03/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 25/04/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 19/05/2026 | 16th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |