5
Willy Winner
6yo Gelding · 9-2
Deauville · Prix De Canapville Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |