2
Adwan
6yo Gelding · 9-5
Deauville · Prix De Valletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Strasbourg | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Strasbourg | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 46% | -0.28 |
| 10/03/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 18/04/2026 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 27/05/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 23% | -0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 19/07/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |