10
Baltimore
4yo Gelding · 8-12
Deauville · Prix De Valletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Deauville | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/11/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 12/12/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 23/01/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 03/06/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |