3
Estella Mobray
5yo Filly · 9-5
Deauville · Prix De Valletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲11463
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6882.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11467.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -11463.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 34392 | 2nd | 41268th | −34388 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Saint-Malo | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Chateaubriant | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/08/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.45 |