14
Johnny Jane
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Deauville · Prix De Valletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#7
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Pornichet | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 54% | -0.33 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 12/07/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |