1
River Quartz
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Deauville · Prix De Valletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#13
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲6877
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6887.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6881.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -6877.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 34392 | 11th | 41277th | −34388 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Compiegne | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2025-08-31 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 15
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 93% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 27/03/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 10/04/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 24/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 29% | -0.27 |