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14

Madurail

10yo Gelding · 8-12

Deauville · Prix De Colletot Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pornichet 17/12/2019 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 12517/12C5C5 @ Saint-Malo 12/07/2020 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f94y Gd 128C5 @ Pornichet 28/08/2020 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m3f204y Gd 13028/08C5C5 @ Pornichet 09/12/2021 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 125C5 @ Pornichet 29/12/2021 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 12829/12C5C5 @ Pornichet 22/01/2022 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 128C0 @ Pornichet 08/02/2022 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 1358/02C?C0 @ Pornichet 11/12/2022 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 13211/12C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2022-12-11Pornichet?2nd2nd0
2022-02-08Pornichet?1st1st0
2022-01-22Pornichet?2nd4th−2
2021-12-29Pornichet?1st3rd−2
2021-12-09Pornichet?4th6th−2
2020-08-28Pornichet?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/129/128/0211/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20191st9/276%100%+0.24
12/07/20204th5/174%40%-0.34
28/08/20201st5/287%100%+0.13
09/12/20214th8/158%67%+0.09
29/12/20211st7/282%100%+0.18
22/01/20222nd9/488%89%+0.01
08/02/20221st7/491%100%+0.09
11/12/20222nd5/287%92%+0.05