Bad Desire
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 96
Deauville · Prix De Pre-en-pail Claiming Stakes - Awt · 7f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-02 | Cholet | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Jebel Ali | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 06/01/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 01/02/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 15/02/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 02/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 15/06/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/06/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |