3

Claim The Stars

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 61

Deauville · Prix De Pre-en-pail Claiming Stakes - Awt · 7f 100y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Deauville 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 6f101y Std 1427/08C?C0 @ Deauville 16/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 116C0 @ Chantilly 01/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 5f102y Sft 1321/09C?C5 @ Le Croise-Laroche 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 61 · 5f102y GS 123 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 61 parC5 @ Chantilly 28/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f101y Std 128 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 61 par28/10C5OR 61C0 @ Chantilly 08/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Std 127C0 @ Deauville 18/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 6f101y Std 12318/12C?3 @ Chantilly 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 61 · 5f102y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 61 par3 @ Saint-Cloud 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f101y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 61 par8/073OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Saint-Cloud36th5th+1
2026-04-28Chantilly35th4th+1
2025-12-18Deauville?14th14th0
2025-11-08Chantilly?9th9th0
2025-10-28Chantilly?10th11th1
2025-10-06Le Croise-Laroche?7th8th1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/086/1018/128/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20256th5/174%62%-0.12
16/08/20256th12/137%67%+0.30
01/09/202510th6/168%31%-0.38
06/10/20257th13/266%54%-0.12
28/10/202510th12/137%18%-0.19
08/11/20259th28/10%43%+0.43
18/12/202514th20/10%13%+0.13
28/04/20265th25/10%64%+0.64
08/07/20266th14/126%17%-0.10