8
Rawiya
4yo Filly · 8-11
Deauville · Prix De Pre-en-pail Claiming Stakes - Awt · 7f 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Chantilly | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Marseille | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-15 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/08/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 10/02/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/04/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |