2
Charly
3yo Gelding · 8-11
Deauville · Prix De La Villa Monet Handicap - Awt · 6f 101y
#4
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 24th | 24th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Nancy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 24th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |