Super Ellie
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 83
Del Mar · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/03/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/04/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |