4
Berry Valley
7yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 93
Del Mar · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-09 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-03-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/12/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 31/01/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/03/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/04/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |