7
Pavel's Etoile
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 96
Del Mar · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |