5
Bitter Truth
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 72
Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/9 | 99% | 60% | -0.39 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |