4
Can't Say That
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 86
Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/5 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |