6
Gonzalo
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 66
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |