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5

Party On Rufus

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 64 par14/03C9OR 64C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 63 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 61 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 61 par11/04C9OR 61C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Delaware Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 57 par20/05C9OR 57C9 @ Delaware Park 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Delaware Park 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 58 par17/06C9OR 58C9 @ Delaware Park 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 59 parC8 @ Delaware Park 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 6f 125 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 par11/07C8OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-06-27Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-17Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-03Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-20Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-26Tampa Bay Downs?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0326/0417/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20265th9/153%64%+0.11
01/04/20262nd25/10%91%+0.91
11/04/20265th6/492%56%-0.37
26/04/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
20/05/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
03/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
17/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
27/06/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
11/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34