2
Quahog Republic
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |