4
Spurious
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 63
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 28/02/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |