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3

Nit Witness

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 21/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 66 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 66 par21/09C9OR 66C9 @ Laurel Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 62 parC9 @ Laurel Park 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 124 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 70 par21/11C9OR 70C9 @ Laurel Park 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 74 parC9 @ Laurel Park 03/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 6f 126 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 68 par3/04C9OR 68C7 @ Delaware Park 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 5f110y Fas 125 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 70 parC7 @ Delaware Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 6f 125 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 71 par29/05C7OR 71C8 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 125 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 74 parC7 @ Delaware Park 25/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 6f 125 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 77 par25/06C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-25Delaware Park?5th5th0
2026-06-13Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-05-29Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-05-13Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-04-03Laurel Park?5th7th−2
2025-12-26Laurel Park?4th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0926/1229/0525/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20252nd1/195%83%-0.11
04/10/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
21/11/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13
26/12/20254th1/195%25%-0.70
03/04/20265th1/297%20%-0.77
13/05/20262nd5/493%80%-0.13
29/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
13/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
25/06/20265th9/488%20%-0.68