4
Escape Key
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |