2
Grouch
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |