4
First Officer
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 73
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |